AG2 TROPICAL REPORT June 7 2013

PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1.
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN205 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 129.0E TO 20.9N 132.0EWITHIN THE NEXT
06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS ATTHIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC DATA AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 17.0N 130.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 129.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 130.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN.RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATIONCENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC.
A NEARBY 071800Z SHIP OBSERVATION REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 1001 MB WITH 21 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A 071631Z
AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS), BUT IS OFFSET BYSTRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC POSITION AND
INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF 20N (AFTER
TAU 24) AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. ECMWFENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FURTHER INDICATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD TRACK AS
ENSEMBLEMEMBERS SHOW A MODERATE SPREAD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THECONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
DECREASING PRESSURE TREND IN THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3.
THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
S$

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